Estimating the impact of some economic variables on the unemployment phenomenon for the period (2004-2021) Iraq as a mode

Abstract

The research seeks to know the level of development of some economic variables in Iraq, and to know the impact of these variables in reducing unemployment rates through the standard analysis method. In order to achieve the study’s goal, a specific period of time (2004-2021) was relied upon, and the (ARDL) model was also relied upon. Estimating the short-term relationship and measuring the limits of joint integration through (bounds testing) in the methodology of automatically distributed lag periods between the economic variables (exchange rate, monetary basis, gross domestic product, public expenditures) and (unemployment rate). Then, the long-term relationship is estimated through its parameters in the long run. The research assumes the existence of an impact at different levels of some economic variables on unemployment. The results of the study also showed the existence of a long-term relationship between the selected economic variables and the unemployment rate. The exchange rate, monetary basis and gross domestic product variables each had a negative impact on unemployment, while the public expenditures variable had a positive impact on the unemployment rate. The most important proposals were, the process of building a balanced economy that gradually moves away from dependence on oil resources and moves towards diversifying the production base to meet the needs of domestic and external demand can only be achieved through a transition to a market economy.