تصميم نموذج دعم قرار الاستبدال باستعمال المحاكاة

الملخص

Analysis of decisions regarding the replacement of old production         equipments and technologies with new ones includes defining the required productive capacity levels and provision of the necessary financial needs to purchase them. Researchers have submitted a set of methods that deal with the problems of replacement, which were based on a set of assumptions. They sometimes hypothesized the consistency of the productive age of equipments, and elsewhere they were limited to the treatment of single equipment. Such assumptions make these methods irrelevant for making the replacement decisions especially those equipments whose age is a random variable such transport buses. Thus the researchers attempted to build a quantitative method characterized by flexibility to simulate the operation of bus replacement in the future. The results of the simulation were used to test the correlation between the number of replacements and the planned age of the productive equipments (the buses). The test revealed that there is no significant relationship between the number of replacements and the planned age of the equipments, in other words the destiny of the transport bus is independent of its planned age, and that the need for replacement is not characterized by a linear relationship with the planned age of the equipment. The research recommends the adoption of  the Replacement  Decision Support Tool developed in this study for analyzing the replacement decisions due to the nature of the outputs provided by the model  which supply the user with the basic themes for analyzing the replacement decisions